A staggering 19.3 million U.S. adults, roughly 7.3% of the population, have seriously thought about shooting another person at some point in their lives, according to a massive national survey published in JAMA Network Open on March 17, 2026.
The study, led by researchers at the University of Michigan and the Department of Veterans Affairs, paints a chilling picture of American impulse. It suggests that 8.5 million people harbored these violent thoughts within the last year alone.
The data shatters common stereotypes regarding who contemplates gun violence. Researchers found that gun ownership and political affiliation have no meaningful link to these thoughts.
Republicans, Democrats, and Independents reported similar rates of violent ideation. Those who do not own firearms were just as likely to imagine shooting someone as those who do.
Demographic breakdowns revealed sharp disparities. Men were significantly more likely to report these thoughts (9%) compared to women (5.7%).
Black Americans, younger adults, and residents of urban areas also reported higher rates of serious thoughts about shooting others. Education played a role as well, with individuals holding graduate degrees showing lower odds of violent ideation compared to those with less formal schooling.
The targets of these thoughts vary, but 51% of respondents identified an "enemy" as the subject of their ire. More alarming for public safety experts is that 25% targeted strangers or people in public spaces. Significant portions of the surveyed group also admitted to thinking about shooting government officials (13.6%) or police and military personnel (6.6%).
Domestic targets were also prevalent, with roughly 10% fixating on family members or romantic partners.
Beyond mere thoughts, the survey tracked concrete steps toward violence. An estimated 1.5 million Americans reported actually bringing a gun to a location with the intent to shoot someone.
However, researchers highlighted a glimmer of hope: approximately 4 million people who had these thoughts disclosed them to someone else.
"This disclosure is a critical point of intervention," the study notes. It suggests that red flag laws could be effectively leveraged if these warnings are taken seriously.
Despite the high number of people thinking about violence, the study emphasizes that the actual rate of firearm homicides, while tragic, remains far lower than the number of people harboring the intent.
This suggests a wide window for preventative mental health and community action.