When a leader promises strength but delivers ruin, the people closest to him start looking for the exit. The walls are closing in on the Kremlin as the cost of war finally hits home.

WHAT HAPPENED

Ukrainian soldiers are pushing deeper into land Russia once claimed to own. This shift is causing a rare and public fight among the men who run the Russian government.

In Crimea, the fear is so high that local leaders are begging people not to run away. They are trying to stop a mass rush for the border as the fighting gets closer to their homes.

At the same time, money experts in Moscow say the country is nearly broke. The high cost of the war and trade bans from other nations have pushed the Russian economy to a breaking point.

WHAT THE EVIDENCE SHOWS

Ukrainian troops are gaining ground in several key areas.

• Top Russian leaders say the economy is near a total crash.
• Crimean officials issued a public plea for citizens not to flee.
• Fights are breaking out between different groups inside the Kremlin.
• War costs and sanctions have drained the national bank.

THE BIGGER QUESTION

We often think of wars ending with a white flag on a field. But what happens when a country falls apart from the inside first?

If the money runs out, the guns stop firing. We should be asking if the real threat to the Kremlin is not the army in front of them, but the empty pockets of the people behind them.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW

For regular people in Russia, this means the price of food and heat will likely go up fast. Life will get much harder as the government struggles to pay its bills.

For the rest of the world, a collapsing power creates a new kind of danger. A leader with nothing left to lose is often the most risky to deal with.

WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW

1. How much longer can the Russian banks stay open?
2. Will the internal fights lead to a change in who runs the country?
3. Can Ukraine keep the land they just took back?