For years, the U.S. tried to starve Iran's economy to stop its nuclear plans. Now, the government is betting that a little bit of trade might prevent a much bigger war.

WHAT HAPPENED

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department gave Iran a 60-day pass to sell its oil. This is a big shift in how the U.S. deals with one of its oldest rivals.

In exchange, Iran must keep the Strait of Hormuz open. This narrow strip of water is where much of the world's oil travels every day.

Vice President Vance says talks in Switzerland are finally moving forward. He calls this move a sign of progress in a long, tense standoff.

WHAT THE EVIDENCE SHOWS

60 days: How long the new license lasts.

• Strait of Hormuz: The sea path Iran must keep open.
• 57%: The share of Americans who do not think this will work.
• Switzerland: The place where the two sides are meeting.
• U.S. Treasury: The agency that signed the order.

THE BIGGER QUESTION

Is this a smart peace move or a sign of weakness? By letting the oil flow, the U.S. gives up its biggest point of leverage.

We have to wonder if a two-month break is enough to fix decades of bad blood. Should we be trading fuel for a promise that might not last the summer?

WHAT HAPPENS NOW

If the deal holds, oil prices might drop a bit at the pump. This could make life a little cheaper for regular drivers.

But if Iran blocks the sea path, the sanctions will snap back into place. The next two months will show if both sides are serious about peace.

WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW

1. Will Iran actually keep the water open for every ship?
2. What exactly did Iran promise in the private talks?
3. Will the U.S. extend the deal after the 60 days are up?